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Someday It Will Happen–It's Just a Matter of When
by Paul Friedman, Red Cross Disaster Services Volunteer
February 15, 20xx
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A 7.4 magnitude earthquake has just hit central Los Angeles. Many of the 1920s-era houses in our area have been badly damaged. Residents are afraid to re-enter their homes because of continuing aftershocks. Power will out for the next four days. Water is running, but city water pipes are damaged and the water may be contaminated, so the city issues a "boil order." The quake has tripped the school's automatic earthquake gas shut-off valve. It will be several days before someone from the gas company or District can come to reset the valve and restore gas service. There are scattered building fires in the area. Police and fire departments are overwhelmed with calls for assistance. The telephone lines are clogged with calls and service is sporadic. (The local cell phone tower dies within 6 hours after its battery-backup fails, and will not work again until power is restored.) Stores and businesses have closed. Their merchandise litters their aisles. Goods are not marked with prices anymore, and without power, stores cannot run their computerized cash register systems. No one can get cash because without power, banks and ATMs cannot function. There is some disorder and looting. The streets are passable, but the traffic lights are out and travel is difficult due to debris in streets. A few freeway interchanges are impassable due to downed overpasses. The temperature has been falling into the low 50's at night and the weather forecast calls for light rain within 48 hours.
The buildings at Muir Middle School remain standing, but have minor damage. It will be five–seven days before city building inspectors can come by to okay the school buildings for occupancy. At first, the campus rapidly clears of students. However, over the next few hours, lacking anywhere else to go, people begin to drift back to campus. By nightfall, over a thousand individuals are camped out on the grass field and basketball courts. (If this number seems high, remember Muir has 2,400 students alone, not counting any of their family members.) There are several people with serious, but non-life threatening, injuries who do not wish to leave their families.
The mayor has ordered LAUSD schools to open as disaster shelters. (In 2007 the Red Cross entered into a formal agreement with the Red Cross to use schools as shelters.) Most Muir staff members have gone home. Will the remaining staff at Muir be able to accommodate the needs of the neighborhood residents for the next 72 hours until the Red Cross and National Guard can mobilize?
Don't assume that we can rely solely on LAUSD for our usual food and supplies. Remember that all the other schools in our area will be facing a similar situation. The LAUSD warehouses themselves will quickly run out of supplies. We cannot assume that we will simply be able to pick up the phone can call for more food or sanitation supplies. It will take time for supplies to start arriving in bulk. Who one can forget the televised pleas of Katrina victims almost a week after the hurricane had passed, begging for someone to send them help? Help we will come eventually, but we must be ready to take care of ourselves for several days following the earthquake.
Does this scenario sound implausible? In 2001, then-incoming FEMA Director Joe Allbaugh identified the three most likely major disasters to hit the country as being a terrorist attack against New York City, a hurricane striking New Orleans, and an earthquake devastating some part of California. Since then, two of these three predictions have come true. A recent United States Geological Survey report concluded that there is an 80% chance of a 7.0 or greater earthquake shaking Southern California within the next 20 years. Before Katrina, people had discussed the possibility of the levees in New Orleans failing for 50 years before Hurricane Katrina struck. Yet in the wake of the hurricane, politicians pointed fingers at one other, crying "Who could have predicted New Orleans was going to flood!?"
I have been a Red Cross Disaster Volunteer for almost 20 years. I have been a Red Cross Shelter Manager in four different Red Cross shelters including a tent camp in Watsonville, California that had almost a thousand evacuees. I have personally experienced three major earthquakes (Sylmar, Northridge, and Loma Prieta). During Katrina I supervised the Los Angeles Red Cross Volunteer Hotline. My staff and I answered literally thousands of calls for help. The scenario above merely reflects a composite of my disaster experiences. I saw these things happen in past disasters, so I expect to see them in future disasters.
The description is far from a "worse case" scenario. One can easily imagine a bigger quake or an earthquake followed by city-wide fires such the fire which leveled much of San Francisco after the 1906 earthquake there. The weather could be blazingly hot...or pouring rain. There could be civil disturbances following the earthquake. But I think this scenario nonetheless represents a reasonable goal for us to prepare for.
Something like this scenario is going to happen in Los Angeles someday. Are we going to be ready?
How we might set up Muir as a disaster shelter.
Participation in this website is completely voluntary. If you don't wish your name or photo used, contact the webmaster and they will be removed immediately.
If you have questions, comments, or additions to this web site, contact Paul Friedman, Computer Teacher (paulfriedman7@yahoo.com).
